Use case · operating

The ramp from delivery to stabilisation.

Popurise will model lease-up across BTR, industrial, office and other operating assets. Absorption, occupancy, revenue ramp, incentive amortisation and the time-to-stabilised-NOI, on a monthly grain.

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The job
Forecast lease-up to stabilisation
When
PC handover, pre-leasing review
Status
On the expansion roadmap
Anchor
Time to stabilised NOI

The job

Lease-up, modelled, not assumed.

Lease-up is the difference between a built asset and an investment. Popurise will model the curve: when each unit signs, what rent it carries, what incentives it absorbs and when the asset stabilises.

Absorption curve

Sign-on rate per month, with structural vacancy at the back end of lease-up.

Pre-leasing layer

Pre-signed leases carry through the model, with their start date and incentive profile.

Incentive amortisation

Rent-free, fit-out contribution and other incentives amortised across the lease term.

Effective rent

The headline rent net of incentive, the number that drives stabilised NOI.

Time to stabilisation

Months from PC to stabilised occupancy and stabilised NOI, called out explicitly.

Hold-period read

The lease-up curve flows into the operating cashflow and the stabilised value.

When it matters

The decisions lease-up forecasting carries.

Pre-leasing strategy

Decide what to pre-sign, at what rent, with what incentives, ahead of practical completion.

Equity raise

Capital partner wants to see the lease-up curve and the assumed time to stabilisation.

Senior debt sizing

Lender sizes against stabilised NOI and an acceptable lease-up period.

Operating budget

Asset manager sets the year-one operating budget off the lease-up forecast.

Inputs and outputs

From absorption to stabilised NOI.

Inputs that drive it
  • Absorption rate per month
  • Pre-leased units and signed terms
  • Target rent per unit or per space
  • Incentive structure (rent-free, fit-out, capex)
  • Lease term and escalation profile
  • Structural vacancy at stabilisation
Outputs that matter
  • Monthly occupancy curve
  • Monthly revenue and effective rent
  • Incentive amortisation profile
  • Time to stabilised occupancy
  • Time to stabilised NOI
  • Impact on hold-period IRR

How it will work

From pre-leasing to stabilisation, in four steps.

  1. 01

    Layer in pre-leasing

    Pre-signed leases carry through the model with their start date and incentive profile.

  2. 02

    Set the absorption curve

    Pick a default curve or build a custom one. Popurise will carry sector defaults by asset class.

  3. 03

    Model incentives

    Rent-free periods, fit-out contributions and other incentives amortised across the lease term.

  4. 04

    Read the ramp

    Monthly occupancy and revenue, time to stabilised NOI and the impact on hold-period returns.

Versus the alternative

Lease-up that is not a single assumption.

Workbook assumption

One number, no curve

  • Lease-up assumed as a single 'months to stabilisation' figure
  • Pre-leases stuck in a comment cell
  • Incentives amortised by hand on a separate tab
  • No way to flex the curve and read the impact
Popurise

Lease-up in Popurise

  • Lease-up modelled as a monthly curve
  • Pre-leases first-class, with their own terms
  • Incentives amortised by the engine, line by line
  • Flex the curve and see the impact on NOI and IRR

Models it will apply to

Lease-up on the operating model stack.

Lease-up is the most volatile period of an investment. Popurise is building it into every operating model that carries a development-to-stabilisation profile.

Applies to

Build-to-rent operating model
BTR lease-up curve, unit by unit.
Industrial and logistics operating model
Industrial pre-leasing and tenant attraction.
Office operating model
Office lease-up with incentive amortisation.
Retail operating model
Retail occupancy ramp and turnover rent.
Self-storage operating model
Self-storage stabilisation curve.
Student accommodation operating model
PBSA bed-by-bed lease-up by intake.

Worked examples

See lease-up in a development context.

Examples

Build-to-rent example
BTR development carried into lease-up.
Industrial example
Industrial development with pre-leasing.
Self-storage example
Self-storage development with stabilisation curve.

Related use cases

Operating cashflow forecasting
The monthly cashflow that the lease-up feeds into.
Yield on cost analysis
Stabilised NOI over total development cost.
Stabilised value analysis
The asset value once lease-up completes.
Exit value analysis
The exit point once the asset is stabilised.
GrainMonthly
LayerPer unit or space
IncentivesAmortised
StatusRoadmap

Be first when lease-up forecasting goes live.

No spreadsheets. No setup. Fourteen-day free trial, no credit card.

Register interest See the operating models