Use case · investment

Hold, sell, refinance or recapitalise.

Popurise will compare the four paths on every operating asset: hold the equity, trade it, refinance and hold, or recapitalise. One project carries the cashflow, the exit and the recommendation.

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The job
Compare hold, sell, refi, recap
When
Fund close, refi window, market peak
Status
On the expansion roadmap
Output
IRR and NPV by path

The job

The four-path decision, built into one project.

Hold versus sell is rarely binary. It is hold, sell, refinance and hold, or recapitalise. Popurise will run all four off the same NOI, the same exit and the same finance assumptions.

Hold path

Continue holding the equity. IRR built off year-by-year NOI plus a terminal exit.

Sell path

Crystallise the asset value today. IRR built off current value net of transaction costs.

Refinance and hold

Re-size senior debt against stabilised value, distribute the freed equity, hold the residual.

Recapitalise

Bring in fresh equity, return some capital, reset the partnership. IRR built off the new stack.

NPV comparison

Discount the cashflows of each path at the same hurdle. Read the NPV side by side.

Recommended path

Popurise flags the highest-NPV path under the stated assumptions, with the runner-up called out.

When it matters

The moments the hold-sell call is the conversation.

Fund close

Fund life ends in two years. The asset is performing. Hold versus sell drives the close.

Refinance window

Senior facility matures. Refinancing freed equity may beat outright sale.

Market peak

Cap rates compress. The sell path may beat the hold path on NPV, even with growth.

Capital partner exit

One partner wants out. Recapitalise rather than sell the whole asset.

Inputs and outputs

What drives the four-path read.

Inputs that drive it
  • Year-by-year NOI from the operating cashflow
  • Current asset value and exit value at hold horizon
  • Senior debt rate, fees, refinance terms
  • Capital partner preferred return and promote
  • Discount rate (hurdle) for NPV comparison
  • Transaction costs by path
Outputs that matter
  • IRR by path: hold, sell, refi, recap
  • NPV by path at the stated hurdle
  • Equity returned by each path
  • Headline recommendation, with the runner-up
  • Cap-rate sensitivity for the sell path
  • Rate sensitivity for the refi path

How it will work

From cashflow to recommended path, in four steps.

  1. 01

    Lock the operating cashflow

    The hold-sell read uses the monthly NOI the operating model already produces.

  2. 02

    Set the path assumptions

    Sale costs, refi terms, recap structure and the discount rate.

  3. 03

    Read the four paths

    IRR and NPV by path, side by side. The recommendation is flagged, the runner-up is called out.

  4. 04

    Stress the call

    Flex cap rates and finance rates. Confirm the recommendation holds or note where it does not.

Versus the alternative

A decision built off one cashflow.

Workbook decision

Four files, no comparison

  • Each path modelled in a separate file
  • NOI re-typed across the four files
  • Discount rates and hurdles inconsistent across paths
  • Recommendation buried in commentary, not numbers
Popurise

Hold sell in Popurise

  • One project carries the four paths
  • NOI sourced once, fed into every path
  • Same discount rate across paths, comparable NPV
  • Recommendation flagged, with the runner-up

Models it will apply to

Hold-sell across the investment and operating stack.

The hold-sell decision applies to every income-producing asset Popurise carries. The model itself sits alongside the operating layer.

Applies to

Hold sell analysis model
The standalone hold-sell decision model.
Yield on cost model
Development yield against hold-period yield.
Stabilised value model
The stabilised value behind the sell path.
Build-to-rent operating model
BTR hold-period cashflow.
Industrial and logistics operating model
Industrial NNN lease economics.
Debt and equity funding model
Capital stack feeding the refi and recap paths.

Worked examples

See a hold-sell call, end to end.

Examples

Build-to-rent example
BTR hold-period cashflow with sell and refi paths.
Industrial example
Industrial hold-period with lease maturity.
Self-storage example
Self-storage hold across stabilisation.

Related use cases

Exit value analysis
The exit value behind the sell path.
Operating cashflow forecasting
The NOI behind the hold path.
Stabilised value analysis
The value the refi reads against.
Yield on cost analysis
The development yield context.
PathsHold, sell, refi, recap
Comparable onIRR and NPV
Discount rateShared hurdle
StatusRoadmap

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