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Childcare feasibility, around licensed places.

Licensed places, operator rent and approvals timing as the design unit. With the stabilised yield a childcare investor actually buys.

  • Inputs7 blocks
  • Outputs8 metrics
  • CashflowMonthly
  • ScenariosPlanned

What this model does

Childcare feasibility, end to end.

Decide whether the licensed places hold up at cap rate. Operator rent, approvals timing and outdoor area drive the answer, not a small commercial cost stack.

Calculation flow05 steps
  1. 01

    Scheme

    Site area, GFA, licensed places and outdoor area captured.

  2. 02

    Cost stack

    Shell $/m², fit-out, outdoor works and contingency broken out.

  3. 03

    Operator lease

    Term, rent, escalation and incentives applied.

  4. 04

    Stabilised NOI

    Operator rent flows into stabilised NOI on total development cost.

  5. 05

    Returns

    Stabilised yield, development profit and equity IRR returned.

Schema

Every input. Every output. In one view.

The full childcare feasibility model schema. 7 input blocks feeding 8 output metrics, with the calculation engine in between.

Inputs07 blocks
  1. 01

    Site and places

    Site areaGFALicensed placesOutdoor area
  2. 02

    Land

    Land costStamp dutyAcquisition
  3. 03

    Construction

    Shell $/m²Fit-outOutdoor worksContingency
  4. 04

    Approvals

    DAChildcare approvalLicensingMarketing
  5. 05

    Lease and revenue

    Operator rentLease termEscalationIncentives
  6. 06

    Finance and exit

    LVRInterestCap rateExit value
  7. 07

    Programme

    ApprovalsConstructionFit-outOpening
Outputs08 metrics
Primary outputAt base case
Stabilised yield6.2%
MetricValue
  • Operator rent$520k pa
  • Exit value$8.4M
  • Licensed places120
  • Development profit$1.6M
  • Development margin23.4%
  • Equity IRR21.0%
  • Programme20 months

Engine logic

Two engines. Scenarios and cashflow.

The two pieces that separate the childcare feasibility from a spreadsheet. Scenarios that share one project, and a monthly cashflow wired to every input.

Scenarios01 / 02

Multiple scenarios, one project

Switchable in a click. No copied files.

  1. 01

    Operator rent and lease term as scenario levers.

  2. 02

    Licensed place count per scenario.

  3. 03

    Cap rate sensitivity on one project.

  4. 04

    Back-solve residual land from a target yield.

Cashflow02 / 02

Monthly cashflow, fully connected

Every input touches the schedule.

  1. 01

    Cashflow runs through approvals, construction and operator fitout.

  2. 02

    Operator rent steps in at opening, with escalation through hold.

  3. 03

    Approvals sit in the programme with their own duration, not assumed.

  4. 04

    Exit value applied at the cap rate at stabilisation.

Excel replacement

Where the workbook quietly fails.

Every row is a recurring failure mode of the childcare feasibility spreadsheet, and how the model handles it once.

SpreadsheetPopurise model
  • 01Modelled as a small commercial shedModelled around licensed places and operator lease
  • 02Operator rent as one numberOperator rent, term, escalation and incentives separated
  • 03Approval timing not modelledApprovals as a real programme item

Use and verify

What it decides. What to check first.

The decisions the childcare feasibility is built to support, alongside the things to verify before you trust it on a live deal.

What it decidesUse cases
  1. 01

    Right-size the places

    Licensed places versus build cost. The margin reflects the licence.

  2. 02

    Lock the operator

    Lease term, rent and incentives as live inputs. Yield follows.

  3. 03

    Pressure-test the cap rate

    Childcare cap rates are tight. See the sensitivity.

  4. 04

    Bid the site

    Back-solve land value from a target yield. Stop fixing the contract price first.

Pre-flight checklist05 checks

  • Licensed places and outdoor area as primary inputs.

  • Operator rent with term, escalation and incentives separated.

  • Approvals as a programme item with its own duration.

  • Outdoor works broken out, not buried in shell cost.

  • Cap rate sensitivity as a scenario.

Worth checking before you stake a live deal on the childcare feasibility.Register interest
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Questions

Childcare feasibility, answered.

How Popurise handles the childcare feasibility.

Is the childcare model live today?

Not yet. Popurise is live for residential. Childcare is on the expansion roadmap.

How is operator rent modelled?

Term, rent, escalation and incentives as separate inputs. Stabilised yield follows the lease.

Does it handle approvals timing?

Yes. DA and childcare approval are real programme items, not assumed.

Can I back-solve land value?

Yes. Set a target yield and the model returns the residual land value.

Shape childcare feasibility in Popurise.

Tell us how your team models this sector today. We are building it with the developers who will use it.

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