What can you pay for the land and still hit your return?
Work back from gross realisation, project costs and a target developer return to a supportable land price. A quick first-pass screen before you take a site into full feasibility.
Gross realisation
Project costs (excluding land)
Target return and acquisition
Site (optional)
Scenario matrix
Residual land value as gross realisation and construction cost each move. The ringed cell is your current inputs.
| GRV / cost | Cost -10% | Cost -5% | Cost Base | Cost +5% | Cost +10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GRV -10% | $1,432,227 | $981,991 | $531,754 | $81,517 | -$368,720 |
| GRV -5% | $2,097,630 | $1,647,393 | $1,197,156 | $746,919 | $296,682 |
| GRV Base | $2,763,033 | $2,312,796 | $1,862,559 | $1,412,322 | $962,085 |
| GRV +5% | $3,428,436 | $2,978,199 | $2,527,962 | $2,077,725 | $1,627,488 |
| GRV +10% | $4,093,839 | $3,643,602 | $3,193,365 | $2,743,128 | $2,292,891 |
A first-pass read on how much the supportable land price moves with revenue and build cost. Not a substitute for a full feasibility.
Residual land value is the amount left for the land after project costs and the target developer return. This free Popurise calculator works back from GRV, construction, fees, contingency, finance, selling and acquisition costs, using either a target margin on GRV or a target profit on cost, to a supportable land price. It is a first-pass screen, not a full residual appraisal.
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How it works
Residual land value is what is left for the land after costs and profit.
Every developer faces the same question on a new site: what can I pay for it? Residual land value answers it by working backwards. Start with the money the finished project is expected to bring in, take out what it costs to build and sell, take out the profit you need, and whatever remains is what the land can support.
This calculator runs that in one step, with two ways to set the target return: a development margin measured against GRV, or a profit on cost measured against the total cost base. Acquisition costs can go in as a dollar figure or as a percentage of the land value, which folds back into the residual.
It is a screen, not an offer. Residual land value is the ceiling. Most teams bid below it to leave room for the unexpected, then confirm the number in a full feasibility.
Worked example
An illustrative Australian project
Example only. Not financial advice.
- Gross realisation value (GRV)
- $18.0M
- Construction cost
- $9.5M
- Professional fees
- $0.9M
- Contingency
- $0.48M
- Other project costs
- $0.35M
- Finance and holding costs
- $0.85M
- Selling costs (2% of GRV)
- $0.36M
- Acquisition (5.5% of land)
- included
- Target development margin
- 20% of GRV
What moves the number
The levers that move it
Residual land value is sensitive. Small moves in revenue or cost swing the supportable land price, because the land absorbs whatever is left over.
- 01
Gross realisation
The top line. Higher pricing or more yield lifts the residual directly, dollar for dollar before costs.
- 02
Construction cost
The biggest cost line. A few percent on the build rate moves the residual by more than it looks.
- 03
Target return
A higher hurdle takes more off the top, so there is less left for the land. Your hurdle is a lever, not a constant.
- 04
Finance and holding
Interest, line fees and holding costs are real money out before revenue lands. They come straight off the residual.
- 05
Acquisition costs
Stamp duty and legals on the land reduce what you can pay for the land itself, especially as a percentage of value.
- 06
Selling costs
Agent commission and marketing on the way out lower net revenue, and the land wears the difference.
How to use it
A screen, not the full model
Use this to decide which sites are worth a proper look. It is a screen, not a land bid, and not a full residual appraisal.
To screen a site fast
When an agent sends a site and you need a quick read on whether the asking price is anywhere near supportable at your hurdle.
It is the ceiling, not the offer
Residual land value is the most you could pay. Most teams bid below it to hold contingency, and always confirm in a full model.
To set the actual bid
When a site deserves a real number, model timing, debt, cash flow and GST, then run the scenarios that decide what to pay.
See the softwareThe calculator suite
Four questions, four fast answers
Each calculator answers one question on a site. Together they screen a deal from land price to timed return, before you build the full model.
Questions
Answered
What residual land value means, how it is worked out, and where the full model takes over.
- What is residual land value?
- Residual land value is the amount left for the land after allowing for project costs and the target developer return. You work back from gross realisation, take out construction, fees, contingency, finance and selling costs, take out the profit you want, and what remains is what you can pay for the site.
- How do you calculate residual land value?
- Start with gross realisation value (GRV). Subtract every non-land cost and the target profit. If acquisition costs are a percentage of land value, divide the result by (1 + that percentage) to get the residual. Using a profit on cost target, the allowable total development cost is GRV divided by (1 + target), then non-land costs and acquisition are removed to leave the land.
- Does residual land value include stamp duty?
- It can. Acquisition costs like stamp duty, legals and due diligence usually sit on top of the land price. This calculator lets you enter them as a dollar amount or as a percentage of the land value, so the residual reflects the total you can commit to acquiring the site.
- What target margin should I use?
- There is no single right number. Target returns vary by developer, project risk, market, funding and strategy. Use your own hurdle rate. Many teams screen with a target development margin on GRV or a target profit on cost, then confirm the deal in a full feasibility.
- Why can residual land value be negative?
- A negative residual means the project costs and your target return already exceed gross realisation, so there is nothing left for the land. It is a clear signal the site does not support the numbers at those assumptions, or that revenue, cost or the target return need to change.
- Is this a substitute for a full feasibility model?
- No. This is a simplified first-pass residual land calculation. It does not model monthly cash flow, interest compounding on the land, staging or GST timing. Use it to screen a site, then take a promising one into full feasibility software before you commit to a land price.
Turn a supportable land price into a real bid.
Screen the site here, then model timing, debt, cash flow and scenarios in Popurise. Free right now, no card required.