Why the cashflow is the model
The cashflow is the only place peak debt, peak equity and IRR can come from. A feasibility without a cashflow gives you profit, but not the timing of capital — and timing is what equity IRR and senior debt sizing both depend on.
The monthly grid
Build the cashflow in months, not quarters or years. Within a single year, the difference between month 22 and month 28 can be the difference between hitting the loan limit and tripping the LTC covenant.
The four cost curves
- Land — single point at acquisition.
- Construction — S-curve over the build program.
- Professional fees — front-loaded into design.
- Finance — capitalised interest and fees on the drawn balance.
The settlement waterfall
A typical apartment scheme settles 40 / 30 / 20 / 10 across the first four months post-PC. Townhouse projects settle stage by stage as each one completes.
Reading the metrics
- Peak debt — the largest cumulative debt balance.
- Peak equity — the largest cumulative equity balance.
- Equity IRR — the discount rate that makes the equity-side cashflow NPV equal zero.
- Distribution timing — when equity actually comes back.