Building a property development cash flow model

Why the cashflow is the model

The cashflow is the only place peak debt, peak equity and IRR can come from. A feasibility without a cashflow gives you profit, but not the timing of capital, and timing is what equity IRR and senior debt sizing both depend on.

The monthly grid

Build the cashflow in months, not quarters or years. Within a single year, the difference between month 22 and month 28 can be the difference between hitting the loan limit and tripping the LTC covenant.

The four cost curves

• Land, single point at acquisition.
• Construction, S-curve over the build program.
• Professional fees, front-loaded into design.
• Finance, capitalised interest and fees on the drawn balance.

The settlement waterfall

A typical apartment scheme settles 40 / 30 / 20 / 10 across the first four months post-PC. Townhouse projects settle stage by stage as each one completes.

Reading the metrics

• Peak debt, the largest cumulative debt balance.
• Peak equity, the largest cumulative equity balance.
• Equity IRR, the discount rate that makes the equity-side cashflow NPV equal zero.
• Distribution timing, when equity actually comes back.